Crypto's New Power Shift: From Wall Street to the Whales

Bitcoin is holding firm ahead of the Fed's next move, US banks just got the green light to enter crypto trading, and the IMF is sounding the alarm on stablecoins shaking emerging markets.

If you want to see how these decisions could reshape liquidity, regulation, and market sentiment all at once, this edition breaks down what's happening—and what it means for your next move.

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Market-Moving News

The Fed, the banks, and the IMF all weighed in this week—and the market's already responding. Here's what you need to know to stay ahead while everyone else is still trying to make sense of the headlines.

Markets

Crypto Markets Hold Firm Ahead of Fed Decision as Traders Brace for Volatility

Bitcoin and Ethereum traded higher ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting, with markets fully pricing in a 25 bps rate cut. BTC hovered near $92,300, while ETH outperformed, jumping 7% post-Fusaka upgrade.

Traders Expect a 'Sell-the-News' Moment

Even though rate cuts typically lift risk assets, volatility often spikes around Fed announcements. Traders are wary of a "sell-the-news" reaction if Powell signals a slower pace of easing in 2026.

BTC has traded between $88,000 and $94,500 for a week, and a breakout above or below those levels could set the next trend. Derivatives data shows rising volatility expectations, but not enough to suggest panic.

Derivatives Signal Tight Trading Range

Volmex's one-day BTC implied volatility jumped from 20% to 67%, indicating a 3.5% expected move—moderate, not extreme. ETH's implied swing sits at 4.6%, while SOL and XRP hover near 5%.

Open interest in ETH futures rose 8% to 12.4 million ETH, its highest level since early December. On the CME, BTC futures open interest remains at multi-month lows, suggesting subdued institutional leverage.

Altcoins Lag as Liquidity Concentrates in Majors

Altcoin sentiment remains weak, with CoinMarketCap's altcoin season index at just 16/100. HYPE, STRK, KAS, and APT all saw double-digit losses, while AI token FET rebounded 9.3% after a recent slump.

Most traders are consolidating into Bitcoin and Ethereum for liquidity and safety ahead of the rate decision. This rotation leaves smaller tokens exposed to outsized downside moves.

Take: BTC's resilience into the Fed event shows quiet confidence, but it's too early to call this the next leg higher.

If Powell leans hawkish, expect a short-lived dip before markets recalibrate—smart money will be watching the breakout levels closely, not just the headlines.

Regulation

OCC Clears US Banks to Facilitate Crypto Transactions

The US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has confirmed that national banks can intermediate crypto trades as riskless principals.

The decision effectively allows banks to act as middlemen in crypto trades without directly holding the assets.

A Major Step Toward Bank-Led Crypto Brokerage

Under this framework, a bank can buy crypto from one customer and immediately sell it to another, mirroring traditional riskless principal trading.

The OCC says this move brings crypto brokerage activity under regulated banking infrastructure.

The letter emphasizes that banks must manage operational and counterparty risks carefully.

Institutions must also ensure compliance with existing banking laws before offering crypto services.

From 'Choke Point 2.0' to a Green Light

This marks a clear departure from the restrictive stance under the Biden administration, which was accused of discouraging banks from dealing with crypto.

Since President Trump took office, the OCC has shifted toward integration rather than exclusion.

Acting Comptroller Jonathan Gould said there's no reason to treat digital assets differently from traditional banking services.

He added that banks have long experience managing settlement and credit risk, making them well-suited to facilitate crypto trades.

Level Playing Field for Banks and Crypto Firms

The interpretive letter suggests parity between crypto-native platforms and traditional financial institutions.

In essence, banks can now compete in the same market space as exchanges—but with the added weight of regulatory clarity.

Take: The OCC's move removes one of the last major roadblocks separating banks from the crypto industry.

If you've been waiting for mainstream access to crypto through your bank app, that reality just got a lot closer—and for institutions, it's open season on digital asset brokerage.

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Macro

IMF Flags Stablecoins as Emerging Market Risk, but Experts Say Impact Still Limited

The International Monetary Fund warned that USD-pegged stablecoins could destabilize emerging markets by enabling capital flight and dollar substitution.

Its December report argues that widespread stablecoin use could erode central bank control over local currencies.

Stablecoins Could Circumvent Capital Controls

According to the IMF, stablecoins allow individuals to bypass official currency restrictions and move money freely across borders.

This creates potential pressure points for countries with strict capital flow measures or high inflation.

The report compares the risk to the 2013 "taper tantrum," when capital fled emerging markets amid rising US rates.

With stablecoins, that kind of capital flight could accelerate, amplifying volatility and weakening domestic currencies.

Market Still Too Small to Move the Needle

Experts counter that the stablecoin market, at roughly $300 billion, remains too small to disrupt global finance.

Noelle Acheson noted that 80% of stablecoin volume still goes into crypto trading, not macro-level capital movement.

David Duong of Coinbase echoed that view, saying stablecoins might amplify USD flight locally but won't trigger systemic crises.

The dollar's $20 trillion M2 base dwarfs the entire stablecoin supply, making the threat largely theoretical for now.

Emerging Markets Still Drive Adoption

Despite the risks, emerging regions continue to dominate stablecoin use. Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East see the highest flows relative to GDP, as users seek dollar stability amid volatile local economies.

Take: The IMF's warning isn't wrong—but it's early. Stablecoins aren't big enough to crash economies yet, but they're growing fast in places where financial instability runs deep, and that could make them both a lifeline and a liability over the next cycle.

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Future Forward

If you want to see the next big crypto wave before it breaks, start watching where the builders and believers gather.

Airdrops, token launches, and conferences are where future narratives quietly take shape—long before they hit the charts.

Airdrops reveal which ecosystems are turning followers into true holders, and TGEs show which teams are confident enough to go public with their work.

Conferences, meanwhile, act like pressure cookers for innovation—where new alliances form and old ideas get left behind.

These early signals may not make headlines yet, but they often decide who wins the next cycle. Keep your eyes there, and you'll spot the spark long before it turns into a wildfire.

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Crypto Know-How: Why Stablecoins Matter in Emerging Markets?

In many emerging markets, stablecoins are more than just a trading tool—they're a lifeline.

When local currencies swing wildly or lose value fast, USD-pegged stablecoins like USDT or USDC offer a safe, digital way to hold value that doesn't vanish overnight.

They also give people access to global markets without needing a traditional bank account.

With just a phone and an internet connection, anyone can send, receive, or store digital dollars instantly and at a fraction of the cost of traditional remittances.

For small businesses, freelancers, and families, stablecoins simplify cross-border payments and protect savings from inflation.

They've quietly become a bridge between the global crypto economy and regions that traditional finance often overlooks.

The takeaway: stablecoins aren't replacing national currencies anytime soon—but they're rewriting what financial freedom looks like for millions who've never had it before.

Everything Else

• Metaplanet's stock jumped 12% as its mNAV climbed to 1.17—its highest level since October—thanks to Bitcoin's rebound and renewed equity momentum.

• Strive launched a $500 million preferred stock program to fund additional Bitcoin purchases, offering a 12% dividend through its SATA shares.

• Nicholas Financial filed with the SEC to create an "AfterDark" Bitcoin ETF that trades only overnight, capitalizing on BTC's stronger performance outside US market hours.

• Binance co-CEO Yi He's WeChat account was hacked and used to promote a fake memecoin, resulting in a small pump-and-dump scheme that netted attackers about $55,000.

• CryptoUK joined the US-based Digital Chamber to coordinate cross-border crypto policy, signaling closer US–UK collaboration on digital asset regulation.